Where religions come to die…


internetreligiondiesOr this…


But from all appearances, it’s not gonna go easily. Perhaps religion is dead and buried already; what we’re still experiencing is that god-awful stink.

Meanwhile, Nigel Barber over at the Huff & Puff Post thinks religion will only be defeated by 2038, mostly through the rise of living standards.

Using the average global growth rate of GDP for the past 30 years of 3.33 percent (based on International Monetary Fund data from their website), the atheist transition would occur in 2035….

If national wealth drives secularization, the global population will cross an atheist threshold where the majority see religion as unimportant by 2041….

Averaging across the two measures of atheism, the entire world population would cross the atheist threshold by about 2038 (average of 2035 for disbelief and 2041 for religiosity). Although 2038 may seem improbably fast, this requires only a shift of approximately 1 percent per year whether in religiosity or belief in God. Using the Human Development Index as a clock suggests an even earlier arrival for the atheist transition.

I’m still skeptical however. 2035 seems way too optimistic. What’s the point of defeating religious belief if other forms of credulous belief persist?

But then again, one victory at a time.

7 thoughts on “Where religions come to die…

  1. That is an interesting thought. When observe my “corner” of the world I see some “indications” that seem to indicate further “polarization” of the population along “political lines.” There was an interesting article in the “The Atlantic” several years ago. I will try to dig it up and post a link in a subsequent reply.

  2. That seems to be the case of Islam–but as someone in the U.S. I believe that until all women and the under-represented gain a better economic & education foothold in life–extremists will re-act in that manner. Bad news for all.

    • Certainly women need to get ahead economically, but I think academically they’re already probably ahead of men. However, extremists tend to be men generally, not women. Oh wait, you’re saying that once women get that foothold, they’ll be the calming influence men need? Could very well be…

  3. Pingback: Robert JR Graham » ‘Religion to Become Minority View by 2041′

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